Negative interest rates fear helplessness, Japan recovery market is generally considered a failure-1256789

Negative interest rate fear of helplessness, Japan recovery market is generally considered a failure, Chen Tao in early 2016, the introduction of the "negative interest rate policy" by the Central Bank of Japan has officially entered into force on 16. As a continuation of the Bank of Japan several rounds of quantitative easing monetary policy, "negative interest rate" this extremely loose monetary stimulus measures, is widely considered to be a "failure", I will also like with the previous round of monetary stimulus is difficult to achieve the desired objectives, to promote the formation of endogenous economic growth momentum. In response to the economic depression after the collapse of the Japanese real estate bubble, in March 19, 2001, the Central Bank of Japan introduced the quantitative easing monetary policy in the world. Since then, the Central Bank of Japan has repeatedly implemented quantitative easing monetary policy measures of different scales. But from 2001 to now, the performance of Japan’s economy can be said to be far from satisfactory. Although the quantitative easing monetary policy helps Japan to solve the problem of the huge non-performing debt after the asset price bubble burst, and promote the economic growth at a low speed, but it can not really promote endogenous growth momentum. After about 2% of the recovery growth from 2003 to 2007, Japan’s economy once again plunged into crisis. Japan’s economy shrank by 1% in 2008 and shrunk by 5.5% in 2009. Even after Japan’s quantitative easing monetary policy stimulus, Japan’s economy continued to experience six recessions within six years, and the "Andouble economics" was basically unsustainable. In the fourth quarter of 2015, Japan’s GDP fell by an annualised rate of 1.4%, while the decline in private consumption was the main reason for GDP’s decline more than expected. Although the accident in Japan in January this year announced the launch of the "negative interest rate" policy, but "negative interest rate" is bound to affect the residents’ interest income and income expectations, is likely to reduce the marginal propensity to consume, which affects the consumer demand, and therefore this extremely loose monetary policy may still contribute to the recovery of the Japanese economy. From the practice of other countries, quantitative easing monetary policy makes a lot of money in pursuit of high risk assets, leading to a sharp rise in the price of financial assets, but the real economy performance has not reached expectations. In July 2015, the Dow Jones industrial average rose by about 180% compared with March 2009, and the German DAX index rose by about 200%, while the real economy still did not perform well, especially the low interest rate and zero interest rate environment hurt the bank’s operational stability. The recent international financial market may be the focus of Deutsche Bank’s next Lehman moment, fully reflecting the financial market’s concerns about bank performance and operational soundness. In January 22, 2015, after the ECB implemented quantitative easing monetary policy, the consumer confidence index of euro zone countries continued to deteriorate throughout the year, and the entrepreneurs’ confidence was not strong. After the four round of quantitative easing policy, the United States, despite its economic recovery and the first return to the normalization of monetary policy, owes much to the technological innovation power of the United States, the dollar, the world currency status and the revitalization of the manufacturing sector. Overall, since 2008 the international financial crisis, countries with quantitative easing monetary policy is a prominent feature of monetary stimulus, significantly boosted risky financial asset prices, significantly delaying the economic structural reform process, greatly increasing the endogenous economic growth theory

负利率恐无助日本复苏 市场普遍认为是失败之举   陈涛   2016年年初日本央行推出的“负利率政策”已于16日正式生效。作为日本央行多轮量化宽松货币政策的延续,“负利率”这一极度宽松货币刺激措施的出台,被市场普遍认为是“失败之举”,恐怕也会与此前多轮货币刺激措施一样难以达到预期目的,无法推动形成内生经济增长动力。   为应对日本房地产泡沫破灭后的经济萧条,2001年3月19日,日本央行在全球率先推出量化宽松货币政策。此后,日本央行又多次实施不同规模的量化宽松货币政策措施。但从2001年至今,日本经济的表现可以说是远远不如人意。虽然量化宽松货币政策帮助日本基本解决了资产价格泡沫破灭后的巨额不良债权问题、推动经济低速增长,但无法真正促进内生增长动力形成。经过2003至2007年期间大约2%的恢复性增长后,日本经济再度陷入危机。2008年日本经济萎缩1%,2009年则萎缩5.5%。即使此后日本加码量化宽松货币政策刺激,六年内日本经济仍连续经历六次衰退,“安倍经济学”基本难以为继。2015年第四季度,日本国内生产总值折合年率下降1.4%,而民间消费下滑是造成GDP跌幅甚于预期的主因。虽然今年1月日本意外宣布推出“负利率”政策,但“负利率”势必影响到居民利息收入及收入预期,很可能会降低边际消费倾向,进而影响到消费需求,故而这一极度宽松货币政策恐怕依旧无助于日本经济复苏。   从其他国家实践看,量化宽松货币政策使得大量资金追捧高风险资产,导致金融资产价格大幅上涨,但实体经济表现并未达到预期。2015年7月,美国道琼斯工业指数较2009年3月大约上涨了180%,德国DAX指数大约上涨了200%,而实体经济仍然表现不佳,特别是低利率、零利率环境损害到银行经营稳健性。近期国际金融市场对德意志银行可能成为下一个雷曼时刻的关注,充分反映出金融市场对银行业绩和经营稳健性的担忧。2015年1月22日,欧洲央行实施量化宽松货币政策后,全年欧元区国家消费者信心指数持续恶化,企业家信心不强。经历四轮量化宽松政策后,美国虽然经济复苏并率先回归货币政策正常化的轨道,但主要归功于美国科技创新实力、美元世界货币地位以及制造业振兴。   综合来看,2008年国际金融危机以来,各国以量化宽松货币政策为显著特征的货币刺激政策,显著推升了高风险金融资产价格,明显延缓了经济结构性改革进程,大大增加了内生经济增长动力形成难度。2016年年初,全球金融大动荡,全球主要股指高位回落,反映出金融市场对全球经济增长前景黯淡的担忧。可见,货币刺激不能替代结构性改革措施。如果各国政府不致力于经济结构、产业结构调整,而过度依赖货币刺激路径,那么恐怕也会陷入日本“经济刺激短暂复苏―再度衰退―加码货币刺激”的死循环。   经济增长归根结底依靠科技、资本和劳动力等生产要素推动。长期连续依靠货币刺激经济,并不能真正让经济走出泥潭。参考借鉴日本经济治理政策得失,中国唯有加快结构性改革,推动供给侧要素优化组合,大力推动社会创业创新,才能真正实现宏观经济持续稳健增长。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: